LIBDaniel Cavender
- Raised
- $0
- Spent
- $0
- Cash on hand
- $0
FEC · Coverage date not reported
FEC candidate filing ↗← Races 2026
The State · North Carolina · Nov. 3, 2026
US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DISTRICT 03
Polls, campaign money and the district behind the race.
The State · On the ballot
Candidates
REPGreg MurphyIncumbent
- Raised
- $2,357,956
- Spent
- $1,243,599
- Cash on hand
- $2,697,820
FEC · As of Jun 30, 2026
FEC candidate filing ↗DEMRaymond Smith
- Raised
- $223,119
- Spent
- $137,467
- Cash on hand
- $73,711
FEC · As of Jun 30, 2026
FEC candidate filing ↗The State · Last 120 days
Poll average
Murphy44.0%
1 polls used · Latest Aug 2, 2026
Smith41.0%
1 polls used · Latest Aug 2, 2026
The State · Every public poll
Polls over time
● Smith● Murphy● Undecided
Each point is a poll, dated by its final field day. All reported choices and outliers are retained.
The State · 1 public polls
The full record
LV: likely voters · RV: registered voters · A: adults · MOE: margin of error
| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | MOE | Results | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin ResearchD-sponsored | Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026 | 600 · LV | ±4 points | Smith 41% Murphy 44% Undecided 15% | Release ↗ |
The State · District estimate
2024 presidential vote
2024 presidential vote in the 2026 district lines (estimate)
Trump +13.4
- Harris
- 42.8%
- 147,220 votes
- Trump
- 56.2%
- 193,312 votes
- Total votes
- 344,265
- Precincts
- 191
The State · 2024 presidential vote
Top precincts
The State · How to read this
Method and sources
The average uses polls from the last 120 days, weighted for recency and sample size. Older polls drop out. Campaign and party-sponsored polls count half as much. Each poll counts once, with likely voters preferred when a poll reports multiple populations. Every public poll is shown below, including outliers. District lean is an estimate of the 2024 presidential vote within the 2026 district lines. Absentee and early votes reported at county level are spread across districts in proportion to precinct votes. Sources: NC State Board of Elections, FEC and pollster releases. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
Precinct map · Coming soonVoter registration by party · Coming soon